On May 31st, The number becomes 2209.

This is not over! Florida and Michigan will be seated and the number to clinch the nomination will be 2209. This is the number of pledged and superdelegates.

May 31st will be the deciding factor as to whether either candidate will be the nominee. The DNC will meet and decide whether or not to disenfranchise 2.3 million voters of Michigan and Florida. Remember it was the Republicans who voted to move the dates of the primaries.

So whether your an Obama fan or a Hillary loyalist, May 31st will be the date to see whether or not Hillary will be the nominee of the Democratic Party.

My advise, Obama better watch what he says in Oregan next Tuesday. THIS IS FAR FROM OVER.



Display:


Re: On May 31st, The number becomes 2209. (none / 0)

I doubt that it will be 2209.  There is a sizable contingent who believe that those states should bear some responsibility for their actions.  They'll have delegates, but they won't have the full slate, imo.


by rfahey22 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:20:56 PM EST

Hillary's peeps (2.00 / 2)

combined with pro MI and FL reps, decided or not, are likely to dominate the R&BC.
by linc on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:23:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary's peeps (none / 0)

This is true, but these people are also politicians who have their own constituencies and standing within the party to think about.  The last credible analysis I came across indicated that in order to seat the full slate, those individuals needed at least a large victory in IN and a small margin in NC to be willing to go through with it.  Just because they support Clinton does not mean that they support full seating of the delegates, especially if it ultimately would not affect the result all that much.


by rfahey22 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:33:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A great many (none / 0)

are not elected officials at all, but thats just from memory.
by linc on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:55:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On May 31st, The number becomes 2209. (none / 0)

Obama picked up most of the uncommitted delegates in Michigan during the conventions.  Even if MI and FL are seated in full (really unlikely), Obama is still too far ahead to lose.  If the number becomes 2209, he will hit that as well in June.


by Skaje on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:22:57 PM EST

Wasn't it (2.00 / 2)

more like 65% of the uncommitted delegates? I could be wrong. Either way, he will still need a much bigger chunk of SDs.
by linc on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:24:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wasn't it (none / 0)

The DNC isn't going to allocate them that way if they allocate them at all. But he doesn't need any SDs. He's ahead.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:28:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah he does (none / 0)

He will probably need 100 more SDs IF FL and MI are not seated. Those are rules.
by linc on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:51:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On May 31st, The number becomes 2209. (2.00 / 3)

you right. don't even listen anybody who will say otherwise


Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties
by engels on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:23:12 PM EST

Re: On May 31st, The number becomes 2209. (none / 0)

Stick your fingers in your ears and yell "la la la la I can't hear you". That works well too, but when you do finally want to hear the truth you will find that this race is over and Obama has one.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:30:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On May 31st, The number becomes 2209. (2.00 / 2)

OMG!!! I'm soooooo Happy!!!!


by nikkid on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:23:12 PM EST

Re: On May 31st, The number becomes 2209. (none / 0)

It should be clear to everyone that 2209 will NOT be the end number, and that the delegations will NOT be sat exactly as the polls went - maybe Florida, but the MI compromise that the Obama camp has agreed on will be the one the MI democrats will be touting, and that will likely be the one they accept.


John McCain hates terrorists, except the ones that hate women. Those are just swell.
by terra on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:23:47 PM EST

And even if it does become 2209... (none / 0)

... after the final primary on June 3, superdelegates (now being held back so as not to make the primary campaigns seem totally irrelevant) will be pouring out in Obama's favor, pushing him well over that number in short order.

He's got a general election campaign to run, people.


Ignorance is weakness. Get strong.
by tbetz on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:25:03 PM EST

Re: And even if it does become 2209... (none / 0)

Tonight the WV governor -- yes, the WV governor -- said that he won't endorse anyone until after the primaries are done on June 3.  This is after he had to know his state was going to go big for Obama.  He also said that Obama could win WV in the fall and spoke of him as if he was going to be the nominee.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:07:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On May 31st, The number becomes 2209. (none / 0)

It won't matter.

You see, Obama will STILL have more then half of the pledged delegates and will STILL be closer to winning then Hillary is to him.  She faces a deficit that cannot be overcome by trickery at this point.

Why are you guys so math-challenged?

I also love the S-D switching arguments that are given here, as if hundreds of Super-Delegates are going to switch and take it from Obama.  Here's a stat for ya:

Number of Obama's Pledged Super-delegates who have switched to Clinton: 0.

Number who WILL switch to Clinton: 0.


by Lawyerish on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:25:14 PM EST

Re: On May 31st, The number becomes 2209. (2.00 / 1)

You should join Wolfson on fantasy island.  No way do total delegates get seated.  


by hillaryfor2008 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:25:29 PM EST

Besides not being good at math (none / 0)

you  do realize that the only way that MI & FL will be counted in full is if Obama gets some delegates out of both MI & FL. That means that even with MI & FL it's OVER.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:27:26 PM EST

re (2.00 / 1)

Its not OVER until November and you will need every single Clinton voter you can get so play nice


by rossinatl on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:37:02 PM EST

Re: On May 31st, The number becomes 2209. (2.00 / 0)

I can't honestly predict what the number will eventually be (2209 seems unlikely to me, as that would represent NO punishment for the moving up of their primaries).

But I welcome a solution to MI and FL, and hope that they get some representation at the convention.


No way. No how. No McCain.
by freedom78 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:39:27 PM EST

Re: On May 31st, The number becomes 2209. (none / 0)

They will be seated at the convention.  I don't know anyone who thinks otherwise.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Tue May 13, 2008 at 08:57:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It will? (none / 0)

What do you know that we don't?  Got an inside on the RBC?

Or... is it that it might.  Or it might stay 2204.5.  Or it might be some value in between.

Your wishes, no matter how fervent, have not yet acquired the status of fact.


by Rorgg on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:05:29 PM EST

Re: On May 31st, The number becomes 2209. (none / 0)

Why would the 48 states that followed the rules want to reward two states that did not?


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:05:41 PM EST

Re: On May 31st, The number becomes 2209. (none / 0)

Remember it was the Republicans who voted to move the dates of the primaries.

Not true.  In Michigan it was democrats that decided to break the rules (many of them Hillary supporters including the governor.)   In Florida the republican controlled legislature did pass the bill moving it forward but the vote was 118-2... and there is the infamous youtube video of the democratic party leader in florida laughing @ the howard dean for trying to stop them.


by soros on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:37:09 PM EST

Yeah, 'this is FAR from OVER' (none / 0)

because it was 'over' about two months ago, when Hillary gave up on Wisconsin.

And by the way, diarist, you're posting falsehoods, at least regarding Michigan-- the primary was moved up by a Democratic House and signed by the Democratic Governor.  Maybe you should check your facts before chanting "the Republican legislature did it," since you obviously don't know what the fuck you're talking about.


by John Poet on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:53:10 AM EST


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